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When it comes to predicting how technology will change our near future, there are three camps. One says that today we've reached a "new normal," that we've already netted all the "low-hanging fruit"-where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in Bitcoins is as good as it's going to get. The other camp foresees widespread job and business destruction. A third believes the only technological revolutions that matter will be found with renewable energy and electric cars. They're all wrong, predicts Mark P. Mills.
History will call the 2020s "roaring" thanks to the convergence of technologies that will drive this decade's economic boom. It doesn't come from any single "big" invention, but from a convergence of radical advances in the three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Novel and unprecedented materials, from which everything is built, are arriving, adding power to the silicon age. Machines, which make and move everything, are undergoing a quiet revolution. And now the advances in each of these domains is accelerated by the Cloud, history's biggest infrastructure, which itself has emerged from the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence.
We've seen this pattern before. The structure of the technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar convergence visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Great, long-cycle booms never come from just one invention. Over history, there have only been a handful of convergent revolutions in the three core technological spheres-information, materials, and machines-from which all the rest of what makes civilization possible is derived.
It's true that we've wrung much of the magic out of technologies that fueled the last, long boom. But the next great convergence will ignite in the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical moment, we have the Cloud that amplifies that fusion. The next long boom starts now.
When it comes to predicting how technology will change our near future, there are three camps. One says that today we've reached a "new normal," that we've already netted all the "low-hanging fruit"-where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in Bitcoins is as good as it's going to get. The other camp foresees widespread job and business destruction. A third believes the only technological revolutions that matter will be found with renewable energy and electric cars. They're all wrong, predicts Mark P. Mills.
History will call the 2020s "roaring" thanks to the convergence of technologies that will drive this decade's economic boom. It doesn't come from any single "big" invention, but from a convergence of radical advances in the three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Novel and unprecedented materials, from which everything is built, are arriving, adding power to the silicon age. Machines, which make and move everything, are undergoing a quiet revolution. And now the advances in each of these domains is accelerated by the Cloud, history's biggest infrastructure, which itself has emerged from the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence.
We've seen this pattern before. The structure of the technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar convergence visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Great, long-cycle booms never come from just one invention. Over history, there have only been a handful of convergent revolutions in the three core technological spheres-information, materials, and machines-from which all the rest of what makes civilization possible is derived.
It's true that we've wrung much of the magic out of technologies that fueled the last, long boom. But the next great convergence will ignite in the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical moment, we have the Cloud that amplifies that fusion. The next long boom starts now.
Mark P. Mills, a physicist, is a Manhattan Institute senior fellow, a faculty fellow at Northwestern University, and a partner in Montrose Lane, an energy-tech venture fund. He is author of Digital Cathedrals (2020) and¿Work in the Age of Robots¿(2018),¿and he is the co-author of The Bottomless Well (2006). He served as chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies, helping take it public in 2007. Earlier, Mills co-authored a successful tech investment newsletter, the Huber-Mills Digital Power Report, and prior to that he served in the Reagan White House Science Office and worked for a number of firms in the commercial nuclear industry. He began his career as an experimental physicist and development engineer in microprocessors and fiber optics at the dawn of the semiconductor revolution, earning several patents while working at Bell Northern Research (Canada's Bell Labs) and at RCA's microprocessor factory in New Jersey.
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2021 |
---|---|
Fachbereich: | Einzelne Wirtschaftszweige |
Genre: | Importe, Wirtschaft |
Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
Medium: | Buch |
Inhalt: | Gebunden |
ISBN-13: | 9781641772303 |
ISBN-10: | 1641772301 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Einband: | Gebunden |
Autor: | Mills, Mark P. |
Hersteller: | Encounter Books |
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: | preigu, Ansas Meyer, Lengericher Landstr. 19, D-49078 Osnabrück, mail@preigu.de |
Maße: | 233 x 154 x 39 mm |
Von/Mit: | Mark P. Mills |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 02.11.2021 |
Gewicht: | 0,776 kg |
Mark P. Mills, a physicist, is a Manhattan Institute senior fellow, a faculty fellow at Northwestern University, and a partner in Montrose Lane, an energy-tech venture fund. He is author of Digital Cathedrals (2020) and¿Work in the Age of Robots¿(2018),¿and he is the co-author of The Bottomless Well (2006). He served as chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies, helping take it public in 2007. Earlier, Mills co-authored a successful tech investment newsletter, the Huber-Mills Digital Power Report, and prior to that he served in the Reagan White House Science Office and worked for a number of firms in the commercial nuclear industry. He began his career as an experimental physicist and development engineer in microprocessors and fiber optics at the dawn of the semiconductor revolution, earning several patents while working at Bell Northern Research (Canada's Bell Labs) and at RCA's microprocessor factory in New Jersey.
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2021 |
---|---|
Fachbereich: | Einzelne Wirtschaftszweige |
Genre: | Importe, Wirtschaft |
Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
Medium: | Buch |
Inhalt: | Gebunden |
ISBN-13: | 9781641772303 |
ISBN-10: | 1641772301 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Einband: | Gebunden |
Autor: | Mills, Mark P. |
Hersteller: | Encounter Books |
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: | preigu, Ansas Meyer, Lengericher Landstr. 19, D-49078 Osnabrück, mail@preigu.de |
Maße: | 233 x 154 x 39 mm |
Von/Mit: | Mark P. Mills |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 02.11.2021 |
Gewicht: | 0,776 kg |