Jean-Pierre Cabestan is emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research, Paris, and emeritus professor of political science, department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University. He is also associate researcher at the Asia Centre, Paris and at the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China, Hong Kong. His main themes of research are Chinese politics and law, China's foreign and security policies, China-Africa relations, China-Taiwan relations and Taiwanese politics. His most recent publications are China Tomorrow: Democracy or Dictatorship? (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019) and Demain la Chine: guerre ou paix? (China Tomorrow: War or Peace?, Gallimard, 2021), due to be published in English by Rowman & Littlefield in early 2023.

Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited

1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition

China

The United States

China's Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia

Conclusion

2 War Risks Debate in China

China's Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War

Debates Among Chinese Experts

Conclusion

3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely?

Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements

The PLA's Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan

Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War

Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War

Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan

Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan

Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits

4 War Risks in the South China Sea

Various Parties' Claims and Controls

Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts

Conclusion

5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands

Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute

Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku

Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement

Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations

Enhanced Senkaku Militarization

Clarifications and Incertitudes

Conclusion

6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War

Recent Rise in Border Tensions

Risks of Sino-Indian War

Conclusion

7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In?

Warning Signs

Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios

Conclusion

Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow?

War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow

Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises

Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End?

Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific

The Role of the US and Its Allies

About the Author