The General Editor of the Statistics without Mathematics series at Vor Press is a researcher and data analyst with experience in government, business and the third sector, who is also well-known as an internationally published author of books on statistical testing.

Foreword xi Preface xv Acknowledgments xvii Chapter 1 Being Right or Making Money 1Ned Davis Bad News about Forecasting (Being Right) 1 Good News about Making Money 5 Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success 6 The Four Real Keys to Making Money 7 The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes 12 Stories of Five Successful Winners 14 Making Our Own Reality 19 The Ned Davis Research Response to All This 22 Timing Models 23 What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It 29 History and Risk Management 32 The Rest of the Book 36 Notes 39 Chapter 2 The Model¿Building Process 41Ned Davis The Model¿Building Process 41 Where to Start: Model Inputs 41 Sentiment and Valuation Indicators 42 Monetary Indicators 43 Economic Indicators 47 Internal Indicators 47 Moving Averages 48 Crossings and Slopes 49 Momentum 54 Putting Indicators Together 55 Conclusion 57 Chapter 3 A Stock Market Model 59Loren Flath A Stock Market Model 59 Overview of the Fab Five 63 Tape Component 64 The Final Tape Component 73 The Sentiment Component 74 Sentiment Summary 87 The Monetary Model 87 Monetary Component Summary 96 Fab Five Combo Component 97 Combo Model Summary 103 Summing Up the Fab Five 104 How We Use the Fab Five 104 Chapter 4 A Simple Model for Bonds 105Loren Flath A Slight Modification 109 Summary 113 Chapter 5 Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity 115Ned Davis Preparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market 115 Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish 115 Other Sentiment Indicators 120 Valuation Problems 124 Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback-Follow the Leaders 130 More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks 132 Four¿Year Presidential Cycle Risks 136 Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update 139 Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 147 What Do Demographics Say? 151 Chapter 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications 155Alejandra Grindal Global Population View 155 Why Is the Population Getting Older? 159 Demographic Developments 161 Implications of Aging Populations 165 Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce 172 Conclusion 177 Chapter 7 United States Energy Independence -A Game-Changer 179John LaForge What the United States Consumes 181 The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence-Oil and Transportation 183 Choosing the Right Fuel 195 Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer 198 Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off 199 How Far Ned Could Go 200 Nat Gas-An Indirect Play on Electric 202 The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources 209 A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence 212 Conclusion 215 About the Authors 217 About the Contributors 219 Index 223